Mastering the Human Body: How Much Longer?
by
If we could jump in Michael J. Fox’s Delorian and travel back to 1950 to share the list of major scientific discoveries to come over the next 60 years, we’d sound crazier than new grad students who think they’re going to graduate within three years. Since Watson and Crick first published their helical model for the structure of DNA in 1953, the pace of biochemical research has been astounding. We sequence entire genomes, we clone live organisms and we have multiple drugs on the market to help old men get erections. Ah, modern science.
The human body is composed of a finite number of molecules. These molecules have a finite number of interactions. Sure, there are a lot of molecules and interactions, but it stands to reason that given enough time, we should eventually be able to identify each one and how it works. Over time, our understanding expands from molecules to pathways to processes and ultimately to a complete understanding of the human body.
Like computing power, it’s reasonable to assume the pace and throughput of basic research will continue to increase for years to come. Although the body presumably faces constant evolutionary pressures, the rate of mutation is slow enough that for the sake of this discussion evolutionary change can be ignored as a variable. So when, if ever, can we expect to know everything about the workings of the human body?
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Colin
wrote on September 20, 2010 at 1:58 pm
Never because the world will end in 2012!
Seriously though, two centuries ago the stethoscope was invented and chlorophyll was isolated; one century ago the concept of vitamins was suggested and "gene" was coined; and 1/2 century ago was CPR and structure of hemoglobin.
Seems beyond exponential to get a complete understanding in another 1/2 century. Does this include emergent concepts like "consciousness" or just the more tactile things like metabolic pathways? I would like to think the latter could be done in my life, so 1/2 century, but longer for the entire picture.
I'm not up on the literature but I presume there's a lot to learn about the magical gene regulation dance that is gestation.
alan@benchfly
wrote on September 20, 2010 at 3:47 pm
As long as Keanu Reeves is around, I'm not worried about 2012 – he stopped that speeding bus 15 years ago and I know he'll pull through again when we need him…
Consciousness is definitely a huge ball of wax and may be difficult to address experimentally, so I was thinking more along the lines of tactile processes. That would include things like gestation though.